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代寫essay案例-Financial Analysis and Projections

日期:2020-09-23 閱讀:次 作者:essay代寫
銷售預測和假設
美國行業內老爺車經銷商的總市場規模為20億美元,經營1974年的業務(IBISWorld,2020)。沒有主要的市場份額超過5%,這與我們從競爭分析得出的結論是一致的。
在頭三年中,我們計劃專注于銷售稀有老爺車,尤其是日本和歐洲的老爺車。到第三年年底,我們應該處于增長后期的階段。一開始,我們計劃通過降低勞動力成本和廣告投資來吸引客戶。老式車輛是可自行決定購買的,因此,個人可支配收入會對其產生重大影響。
在未來五年中,經典汽車經銷商行業預計將受到國內經濟增長的支持。在非常有利的增長率的支持下,我們計劃在這五年期末將業務規模擴展到2500萬美元的年收入。
古董車和古董車銷售是我們的主要業務,我們計劃在頭三年出售日本和歐洲的汽車。我們預計到第三年年底的年收入將達到1800萬美元,我們計劃擴大業務并以委托方式出售第三方本地車輛。我們還計劃通過拍賣出售稀有和有價值的古董車,這將進一步提高我們從第4年開始的盈利能力。隨著我們進入快速增長階段,從第3年到第4年的收入增長率預計為20%。根據授權的市場研究機構的說法,市場潛力也將不斷提高。

Sales Forecast and Assumptions
The total market size of classic car dealers in the U.S. industry is $2 billion with 1974 businesses in operation (IBISWorld, 2020). There is no major player with a market share of greater than 5% which is consistent with our conclusion from competitive analysis.
In the first three-year period, we plan to focus on selling rare classic cars especially from Japan and Europe. We should be in the stage of late growth phase by the end of year three. In the beginning, we are planning to attract customers by undercutting the cost of labour and investment in advertising. The vintage vehicles are strongly discretionary purchases therefore it is significantly impacted by the individual disposable income.
Over the next five years, the classic car dealer industry is expected to be supported by the growth in domestic economy. We are planning to scale our business to the annual income of $25 million by the end of this five-year period supported by a very favourable growth rate.
Classic and antique car sale is our major business line, and we plan to sell Japanese and European cars for the first three years. With an expectation of an annual revenue of $18 million by the end of year 3, we plan to expand our business and sell third-party local vehicle on consignment. We also plan on selling rare and valuable antique vehicles via auctions, which will further boost our profitability from year 4. The growth rate of revenues from year 3 to year 4 are projected to be 20% as we are entering the rapid growth stage. And the market potential will be increasing as well according to authorized market research agencies.


人員配備
參照我們的運營計劃,我們的業務結構是平坦的。 在第一階段,我們計劃招募3名銷售代表,1名客戶服務人員,1名財務人員,1名汽車修理工和6名采購人員。 我們計劃派遣采購人員到日本和歐洲與我們的供應商進行談判。 盡管有搬遷費用,但第一年我們的創始團隊的總啟動費用總計為90萬美元。

Staffing
Referring to our operation plan, the structure of our business is flat. In the first stage, we plan to recruit 3 sales representatives, 1 customer service staff, 1 financial staff, 1 car mechanics, and 6 purchase employees. We plan on sending our purchase staff to Japan and Europe to negotiate with our suppliers. The total start-up expenses for our founding team total to $0.9 million for the first year despite of the relocation expenses. 


銷貨成本
我們業務的售出商品成本(COGS)包括車輛的購買價格,銷售傭金,修改成本和倉儲成本。 同時,與辦公室租金,職工培訓費有關的費用也計入當期費用。 在第一年,我們的業務預計銷售的COGS為400萬美元。 隨著銷售量的逐年增長,COGS有望增長。 在第5年內,我們預計總的COGS最高金額約為1300萬美元。


Cost of Goods Sold
The cost of goods sold(COGS) for our business include the purchase price of vehicles, sales commissions, modification cost, and storage costs. In the meanwhile, the expenses related to rental cost of office, training cost for employees are also included in the period cost. In the first year, our business has projected a COGS sold of $4 million. And the COGS is expected to grow as sales volume increases year by year. During the year 5, we project the total COGS to be about $13 million at maximum.  


開辦費用
i。資本支出
為了使我們的業務起步,我們將需要租用建筑物作為辦公室和倉庫。我們計劃以10年的租賃協議來保護我們的倉庫。前三年的月租金約為5,000美元,比第四年每年增長3%。同時,我們需要稍微改善租賃權,以建立展示廳來展示我們的汽車,這將產生50萬美元的支出,其中包括購買家具和設備。當我們計劃在本地招聘會員時,位置費用主要來自海外員工。由于必要時我們將在日本和歐洲建立本地辦事處以對汽車狀況進行現場調查,因此預計第一年的管理和位置費用為80,000美元。從第二年開始,相關費用將降至50,000美元。
ii。其他啟動費用
我們用于其他啟動費用的總預算,包括對呼叫中心,網站和廣告的投資。當我們計劃將古董車銷售給高收入人群時,我們需要大量的促銷和營銷費用來吸引客戶。因此,我們計劃在頭三年支出300萬美元的年度費用,并從擁有穩固客戶基礎的第5年開始將其逐步降低至1美元至150萬美元。我們的營銷經理將負責PR活動和相關的促銷活動。我們的使命是將客戶和員工都當作客人在家中。因此,我們將客戶的滿意度作為重中之重,并希望與客戶建立終身的關系。我們計劃在第一年投資100萬美元建立我們的客戶服務中心,預計每年的費用約為60萬美元。


Start-up Expenses
i. Capital Expenditures
To take our business off the ground, we will need to rent building as our office and warehouse. We plan to secure our warehouse with a lease agreement of 10 years. The monthly rental payment for the first three year is about $5,000 with an annual increase of 3% from the fourth year. In the meanwhile, we need slight leasehold improvements to build up show rooms to display our cars, and it will incur an outlay of 0.5 million including purchase of furniture and equipment. As we plan to recruit our members locally, the location expenses are mainly resulted from the overseas staff. As we will build local offices in Japan and Europe to carry out on-spot investigation of car conditions if necessary, the administration and location fees are expected to be $80,000 for the first year. From the second year, the related expenses will fall to $50,000.
ii. Other Start-up Expenses
Our total budget for other start-up expenses including investment in call centers, websites and advertising. As we plan on selling vintage cars to high income groups, we need a significant outlay for promotion and marketing to attract customers. Therefore, we plan to spend an annual expense of $3 million in the first three years, and gradually reduce it to $1 to $1.5 million from the year 5 when we have a solid customer base. Our marketing manager will be responsible for PR campaigns and related promotion events. Our mission is to treat both customers and employees as guests in our home. So, we put customers’ satisfaction as our priority and we want to build a life-long relationship with our customers. We plan to invest $1 million in the first year to build our customer service center and annually expense is expected to be around $0.6 million. 

盈利能力預測
根據我們對前三年收入和COGS的預測,到第5年年底,利潤預計將增長到900萬美元。即使我們高昂的汽車價格可能會導致應收賬款增加,而不是即時現金流入,我們相信我們的運營將有效地運作以管理我們的營運資金。
資金
我們的啟動費用總計為$ 4.64。為了確保我們的運營活動,考慮到開始的購買費用,我們總共需要500萬美元。我和我的合伙人將投資100萬美元作為運營現金儲備。我們預計需要400萬美元的資金來支付啟動費用和部分COGS。我們計劃通過銀行貸款為我們的業務融資200萬美元。考慮到我們是一家新興企業,我們預計年利率為7.5%。每年的利息支出將為$ 150,000。基于可獲得的結果和合理的假設,我們有很強的預計盈利能力。即使以每年支付的利息很高,鑒于我們所售車輛的美元價值,我們也將支付這筆利息。
Profitability Projections
According to our projections for revenues and COGS in the first three years, the profits are expected to grow to $9 million by the end of year 5. Even though the high price of our vehicles might lead to increase in accounts receivables rather than instant cash inflow, we are confident that our operation will function efficiently to manage our working capital.
Funding
Our start-up expenses total to $4.64. To secure our operation activities, we will need a total amount of 5 million given the purchase expenses in the beginning. My partner and I will be investing $1 million as a cash reserve for operations. We project our amount of funding needed to be $4 million to cover the start-up expenses and the partial COGS. And we plan to finance $2 million for our business via bank loans. Considering we are a start-up business, we will expect an annual interest rate of 7.5%. Annual interest expense will be $150,000. We have a strong projected profitability based on attainable results and reasonable assumptions. Even thought the annual interest payment is a large amount, we will cover it given the dollar value of our vehicles we sell.
 
Reference:
IBISWorld (2020). Retrieved from: 


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